The Swing State Report #3: Weekly Rundown of Economic & Political Shifts

Economic growth is slowing across many swing states, but conditions point to moderation rather than a broad downturn.

Large corporate investments continue to flow into key states despite softer economic indicators and rising costs.

Election integrity, voting rules, and redistricting disputes are intensifying ahead of the 2026 cycle.

Early maneuvering for the 2026 midterms is already influencing state-level legislation, messaging, and investment priorities.

Arizona's Population Surge Drives Economic Expansion: New data highlights Arizona's robust resident growth, adding over 100,000 people in the past year, boosting sectors like housing, retail, and services while straining infrastructure. This is a positive outlook on the state's competitiveness.

Tucson Electric Power Gets Green Light for Massive Data Center Deal: The Arizona Corporation Commission approved a landmark agreement for a hyperscale data center, promising $1B+ in investments, thousands of jobs, and rate protections, hailed as a win for tech infrastructure.

ASML Inaugurates Tech Hub and Training Center in Phoenix: Semiconductor giant ASML opened a $15M facility to train 1,000 engineers annually on cutting-edge lithography tech, reinforcing Arizona's role in the global chip supply chain and spurring high-tech job creation.

Democrats Gear Up for 2026 Midterms to Flip Arizona Legislature Amid Trump's Low Approval: National Democrats, via the DLCC, plan a $50M push to seize control of the GOP held chambers, citing President Trump's unpopularity and immigration overreach as key vulnerabilities, potentially shifting state power dynamics.

Kyrsten Sinema Backs Controversial Data Center in Chandler, Sparking Bipartisan Backlash: The former senator lobbies for a massive AI-driven facility amid Trump's tech agenda, but locals decry energy costs and few jobs, highlighting non-partisan divides in Arizona's "Silicon Desert."

New Rep. Adelita Grijalva Targets Oak Flat Land Swap with Anti-Mining Bill: Freshly sworn in, the Democrat introduces legislation to block a copper mine on sacred Apache land, reigniting debates over economic growth vs. tribal rights in a decade-old federal deal.

Amazon Announces New Delivery Station in Brunswick: Amazon revealed plans for a new last-mile delivery facility in Brunswick, part of its ongoing expansion in Georgia. This investment is expected to create hundreds of jobs and enhance logistics efficiency in the coastal region.

BioTouch Expands Operations in Columbus, Adding 480 Jobs: Health care logistics firm BioTouch is investing $12.5 million to expand its facilities in Columbus, creating 480 new jobs over the next four years. This bolsters Georgia's growing logistics and manufacturing sectors.

USDA Announces $501 Million Investment in Rural Georgia Communities: U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins unveiled $501 million in funding for rural development projects across Georgia, targeting infrastructure, agriculture, and economic revitalization in underserved areas.

Georgia Power's Data Center Expansion Plan Faces Key Hearings: Georgia Power's proposed energy expansion to support booming data centers, driven by AI and tech growth, advanced to final hearings before a regulatory vote, highlighting the state's role in national tech infrastructure amid rising electricity demands.

Democrat Eric Gisler Flips Republican State House Seat in Special Election: Democrat Eric Gisler won a special election for Georgia House District 121, flipping a district President Trump carried by 12 points in 2024. This marks another Democratic upset, following recent PSC victories, signaling potential momentum for 2026 midterms.

Fulton County Election Irregularities Highlighted in State Election Board Hearing: Georgia State Election Board hearing revealed Fulton County failed to produce signed tabulator tapes for 315,000 early votes in the 2020 election, reigniting debates over certification and drawing national attention to ongoing election integrity concerns.

Sen. Jon Ossoff Pushes Bipartisan Extension of ACA Subsidies: U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) urged Republicans to support extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies set to expire, warning that failure could strip insurance from 500,000 Georgians and raise premiums for millions more ahead of the holidays.

Senate Passes Decade-Long Bipartisan Economic Development Plan: Michigan lawmakers advanced a comprehensive 10-year economic strategy, creating a Strategic Advisory Board to guide growth initiatives across the state. This bill, championed by Sen. Rosemary McMorrow, passed the Senate on December 9 and highlights a push for long-term prosperity.

Senate Approves Boost to Brownfield Redevelopment Funding: Legislation to overhaul Michigan's brownfield program passed the Senate, expanding tax incentives, improving transparency, and establishing a statewide economic strategy board to revitalize contaminated sites and spur development.

Gov. Whitmer Announces $3.4 Million for Northern Michigan Housing Redevelopments: Governor Gretchen Whitmer allocated state funds for redeveloping vacant properties in Cadillac, Escanaba, and Marquette, adding 60 affordable housing units to address economic and housing needs in rural areas.

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan Announces Independent Run for Governor: Incumbent Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan declared he won't seek reelection and will run as an independent for Michigan governor in 2026, citing a desire to focus on statewide issues like affordability. This move, amid a crowded field including Benson and Republicans like John James, disrupted Democratic primaries and drew widespread media and social buzz.

Las Vegas Adds Thousands of Jobs Despite Ongoing Tourism Slump: Southern Nevada saw robust job gains in September, with over 5,000 new positions added amid a persistent dip in visitor numbers and spending—highlighting resilience in sectors like construction and professional services. This story trended due to its contrast with national slowdown fears.

Democrats Eye 'Trump Slump' to Flip Nevada Governorship in 2026: National Democrats are targeting GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo as a top flip opportunity in the midterms, citing a tourism downturn in Las Vegas (down 7.9% in visitors YTD) as a potential backlash to Trump-era policies, boosting Dem recruitment and fundraising. The story trended on X for its implications on NV's battleground dynamics.

Gov. Lombardo Signs 13 Bipartisan Bills from 2025 Special Session: Lombardo enacted legislation from the November special session, focusing on public safety enhancements, health care access expansion, cybersecurity modernization, school zone safety, and child protection; hailed as "high-impact" reforms amid bipartisan praise but Dem critiques on scope.

Nevada Voter Rolls Drop 24K in November; GOP Lead Over Dems Grows to 4K: Active registered voters fell 1.14% to 2.1M due to Washoe County list maintenance (inactivating 32K non-respondents), with Republicans losing fewer (down 0.74%) than Democrats (down 0.91%), widening the GOP edge for the first time since 2007 amplifying concerns over election integrity and partisan shifts.

Trump Floats Eliminating Federal Tax on Gambling Winnings: In an Air Force One interview, President Trump said he'd "think about" scrapping taxes on gambling wins, echoing his no-tax-on-tips policy— a potential boon for Nevada's casino-driven economy but raising revenue loss debates among lawmakers.

Record-Breaking Job Announcements in 2025: Governor Josh Stein highlighted North Carolina's economic development successes, announcing over 33,000 new jobs and $23 billion in investments, marking a historic year for the state's economy.

Economist Warns of National Affordability Crisis Hitting NC: NC State economist Mike Walden discussed how rising costs for housing, food, and energy are straining household budgets and slowing economic momentum in North Carolina amid broader national trends.

Novartis Expands Pharma Operations, Adding 700 Jobs and $771 Million: The global pharmaceutical giant announced expansions in Durham and Wake counties, nearly doubling its footprint to 700,000 square feet for advanced manufacturing. The project, facilitated by state grants, highlights NC's biotech leadership and is expected to inject $42 million annually into the local economy.

Post-Election Analysis: How Voting Patterns Affect NC Businesses: The North Carolina Chamber of Commerce analyzed recent election outcomes, emphasizing their implications for business taxes, regulations, and growth policies in a state reliant on a strong private sector.

Gov. Stein Reverses Medicaid Rate Cuts Amid Ongoing Budget Stalemate: Governor Josh Stein halted planned Medicaid provider rate reductions after legislative battles and legal threats, warning of potential fund exhaustion by mid-2026 without a new state budget, highlighting deepening tensions between the Democratic governor and Republican legislature.

New State Laws Take Effect on December 1, Sparking Debate on Guns and Crime: A slate of Republican-backed laws went into effect, including expanded concealed carry in private schools, restrictions on heavy trucks in left lanes, and tougher penalties for online sexual exploitation, fueling partisan arguments over public safety and individual rights.

DrinkPAK Announces $195 Million Investment for New Manufacturing Facility in Philadelphia: Canned beverage manufacturer DrinkPAK committed $195 million to open its East Coast flagship facility, supported by a $2 million state investment, creating 174 jobs and strengthening Pennsylvania's manufacturing sector.

Shapiro Administration Awards $10.5 Million in PIDA Loans to Support Business Expansion Across Four Counties: The Pennsylvania Industrial Development Authority approved loans injecting over $23.2 million into the economy, creating 26 new jobs and retaining 297 positions in manufacturing and other sectors.

Janelle Stelson Leads Scott Perry by 4 Points in New Poll for PA-10 Swing District: A December 3 poll revealed Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson ahead of incumbent GOP Rep. Scott Perry by 4 points in the competitive district, building on her 2024 near-miss and highlighting vulnerabilities in Trump's endorsed candidates.

Governor Evers Appoints New Leader for Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC): Gov. Tony Evers named John W. Miller, a venture capitalist and former congressional staffer, as the new secretary and CEO of WEDC, aiming to boost economic growth amid ongoing state investments. This appointment sparked widespread discussion on future business incentives.

Small Business Optimism Rises in November, Signaling Recovery Amid National Challenges: Wisconsin's small business optimism index increased for the first time in months, driven by better sales expectations and hiring plans, according to NFIB data released in early December. Local owners highlighted resilience despite inflation pressures.

Weekly Unemployment Claims Rise, Highlighting Labor Market Pressures: Initial unemployment claims in Wisconsin jumped by over 10% for the week ending December 7, attributed to seasonal factors and manufacturing slowdowns, raising concerns about holiday job stability.

Mandela Barnes Launches Gubernatorial Campaign with $50M Fundraising Goal: Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes announced his run for Wisconsin governor, emphasizing ethics reform and criticizing big money in politics while setting an ambitious fundraising target—drawing sharp reactions from both parties amid 2026 midterm buzz.

Tom Tiffany Warns of Welfare Fraud Lessons from Minnesota: Republican gubernatorial candidate Rep. Tom Tiffany accused Gov. Evers of blocking federal audits of SNAP and Medicaid rolls, likening it to Minnesota's $250M+ scandal and calling for stricter oversight to prevent similar issues in Wisconsin.