The Swing State Report #2: Weekly Rundown of Economic & Political Shifts

Common Sense Institute Report Urges Sale of State Trust Lands to Unlock $55 Billion in Economic Activity and Ease Housing Crunch: A November report from the Common Sense Institute Arizona proposed orderly sales of developable state trust lands over the next decade. The plan addresses Arizona's housing affordability crisis, where median home costs consume nearly 50% of household income, amid calls for legislative action to boost construction and family budgets.

ASU/PNC Economic Forecast Luncheon Highlights Policy Impacts on Arizona's Growth Amid Shutdown and Inflation: Economists at Arizona State University's 62nd Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon warned that federal policies like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and the government shutdown could slow Arizona's job growth to 65,000 in 2025, down from 68,800 in 2024, while inflation remains a persistent drag. Despite these risks, the state's economy is projected to avoid recession with solid GDP gains, driven by tech and tourism resilience, though experts urged diversification to buffer uncertainties.

Sen. Mark Kelly Faces Investigation: The Department of Defense/War announced a review into allegations of misconduct against U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) after he posted a video reminding military members they are not required to follow illegal orders.

AG Kris Mayes Appeals Dismissal of Case Against 2020 Election Overturn Plotters: Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed an appeal to the state Supreme Court to revive her criminal case against 11 Republicans and Trump aides accused of attempting to overturn the 2020 election results. A lower court had sent the case back to a grand jury, but Mayes argues it should proceed, highlighting ongoing tensions over election integrity. This follows her office joining 30 lawsuits against the Trump administration on various issues.

Salesforce Announces $15 Million Expansion, Creating 250+ Jobs in Atlanta: Cloud software giant Salesforce revealed plans to invest $15 million in expanding its Fulton County operations, adding over 250 high-paying jobs by 2028 in areas like engineering and sales. The move underscores Georgia's appeal as a tech hub, supported by partnerships with the Georgia Department of Economic Development, Invest Atlanta, and local leaders.

Federal Shutdown Deal Bans Certain Hemp Products: The bipartisan agreement ending the November shutdown included a provision effectively banning many hemp-derived products (e.g., delta-8 THC items), potentially wiping out millions in annual revenue for Georgia's burgeoning $1.5 billion hemp industry. Farmers and businesses in rural areas, which have seen explosive growth since 2018 legalization, expressed alarm over job losses and supply chain disruptions. The measure, tied to broader drug policy reforms, highlights tensions between federal regulations and state-level economic gains.

Georgia Power's Data Center Expansion Faces Scrutiny Over Potential $20+ Monthly Bill Hikes: State regulators rejected a delay on a key vote for Georgia Power's massive data center buildout (including a new tenant at one of the state's largest campuses), but analysts warned residential customers could face $20+ monthly increases to fund the energy-intensive projects. The expansion aligns with Georgia's tech boom but raises affordability concerns amid inflation.

Dismissal of the Georgia Election Interference Case Against President Trump: Peter J. Skandalakis, head of the nonpartisan Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council of Georgia, took over as special prosecutor from Fulton County DA Fani Willis and moved to dismiss all charges in the high-profile racketeering case related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. Skandalakis cited the impracticality of trying a sitting president.

U-M Forecast Predicts Economic 'Pause' Until 2027: University of Michigan economists projected Michigan's payroll jobs to decline by 2,000 in 2026 amid tariff impacts on the auto sector, before rebounding with 11,300 gains in 2027; the state faces unique risks from trade policies and an aging population, with national growth resuming sooner.

RNC Lawsuit Challenges Overseas Voting Rights: The Republican National Committee filed a lawsuit against a Michigan law protecting voting access for U.S. citizens abroad, arguing it violates the state constitution. This marks the party's second attempt in under two years to restrict such votes.

GOP Request for DOJ Oversight of 2026 Elections: Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt and Republican lawmakers urged U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi to deploy federal election monitors for the state's 2026 primaries and general election, citing a conflict of interest due to Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson's gubernatorial run.

UNLV Forecast Predicts Slow Growth and Mild Contraction Without Recession: The Center for Business and Economic Research's November 2025 outlook warned of a mild economic slowdown in Southern Nevada through 2027, driven by tourism declines, flat gaming revenues, and rising unemployment. However, no recession is expected, with healthcare poised to become the second-largest industry by 2028 and slight visitor recovery projected for 2026.

$9.2 Million Investment Announced for 325 New Jobs in Southern Nevada: The Governor's Office of Economic Development greenlit expansions by four companies in manufacturing, finance, and distribution, including Welspun USA's $5.15 million textile facility creating 50 jobs. The projects aim to diversify beyond tourism amid ongoing labor shortages.

Nevada Legislature's Special Session Ends with Key Bills Failing: The seven-day special session called by Gov. Joe Lombardo concluded without passing major proposals, including a controversial bill for tax credits to develop a film studio in Summerlin and an affordable housing measure, both falling short by one vote each. Lawmakers did approve 14 other bills.

Nevada Senators Break Ranks to End Federal Government Shutdown: Democratic Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen voted with Republicans to resolve the 41-day shutdown, prioritizing aid for Nevada's high SNAP recipient population and disrupted air travel at Harry Reid International Airport. The move drew ire from some and praise from others.

Toyota's $13.9 Billion Battery Plant Announcement Creates 5,100 Jobs: Toyota broke ground on its first U.S. battery manufacturing facility in North America in Randolph County, marking the largest corporate investment in state history. The 1,850-acre project, supported by bipartisan incentives, will bolster NC's clean energy sector and add millions in annual payroll.

Scout Motors Establishes HQ in Charlotte with $207 Million Investment: The electric vehicle company selected Charlotte for its North American headquarters, creating 1,200 jobs and revitalizing an iconic American auto brand. This follows a string of 2025 announcements totaling over 30,000 jobs and $22 billion in investments.

Novartis Expands Pharma Operations, Adding 700 Jobs and $771 Million: The global pharmaceutical giant announced expansions in Durham and Wake counties, nearly doubling its footprint to 700,000 square feet for advanced manufacturing. The project, facilitated by state grants, highlights NC's biotech leadership and is expected to inject $42 million annually into the local economy.

Ongoing State Budget Stalemate Strains Safety Nets and Health Services: The General Assembly has failed to pass a new budget, leaving North Carolina as the only state without an operating budget. This deadlock has led to cuts in Medicaid funding and closures of essential services like the Healthy Opportunities Pilot program.

Federal Court Approves GOP-Drawn Congressional Map for 2026 Elections: A three-judge panel ruled that the Republican legislature's new congressional districts can be used in the 2026 midterms.

New Tax Relief and Permitting Reforms for Businesses: The budget introduces a 10% state Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and expands the Streamlining Permits for Economic Expansion and Development (SPEED) program for faster approvals. It also continues corporate net income tax reductions toward 4.88% by 2031, aiming to enhance competitiveness.

State Budget Passage After Months of Stalemate: Governor Josh Shapiro signed a $50.1 billion bipartisan budget, ending a four-month impasse. The deal includes education funding boosts and cyber charter reforms.

Pennsylvania Supreme Court Retention Elections: Voters retained three Democratic justices in retention elections, preserving the court's 5-2 Democratic majority.

State Adds 22,800 Jobs Over Past Year: Wisconsin's employment rose by 0.7% year-over-year through September 2025, adding 22,800 jobs, according to the Department of Revenue's monthly update. However, this trails the U.S. average of 0.9%, with a three-month average gain of 6,400 jobs signaling cautious optimism in sectors like manufacturing and health services.

Wisconsin Supreme Court Appoints Panels for Congressional Redistricting Lawsuits: The Wisconsin Supreme Court appointed two separate three-judge panels to hear lawsuits challenging the state's congressional maps. This development could lead to new maps ahead of the 2026 elections.

GOP-Led Assembly Passes Election Reform Bills: Lawmakers in the state Assembly approved a series of election-related bills, including changes to absentee ballot processing and the elimination of central count locations.