The Swing State Report #1: Weekly Rundown of Economic & Political Shifts

SNAP Benefits Disruptions: Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina expanded emergency funding amid a nationwide pause.

Economic Shifts: Michigan landed the Stargate data center; Pennsylvania saw a $20B AI infrastructure surge.

Political Heat: Supreme Court races in Pennsylvania and redistricting battles in North Carolina dominate headlines.

Emerging Themes: State budgets, federal shutdown impacts, and regional data-center booms define this week’s swing-state outlook.

Economic Performance: Arizona's economy saw a slowdown in early 2025, but its 1.1% job growth still outpaced the U.S. average. The housing market is experiencing a slow start, with permits down 8.8% statewide year-over-year.

Key Investments: Significant activity includes APS developing a natural gas plant, Kestra Holdings opening a secondary HQ in Tempe (250 jobs), and NeuroCatch Inc. establishing its U.S. headquarters in Greater Phoenix. The Phoenix Suns arena has been renamed the Mortgage Matchup Center.

Policy Concerns: A report warned that 88 legislative bills could have jeopardized Arizona's economic growth, potentially imposing over $45.9 billion in new annual costs on businesses.

SNAP Benefits Crisis: Governor Katie Hobbs blames President Trump for the looming pause in federal SNAP benefits, announcing $1.8 million in temporary state funding to aid food banks as federal benefits expired November 1.

Delayed Swearing-In: Representative-elect Adelita Grijalva's swearing-in for CD7 is delayed for 41 days, leading to the state’s attorney general filing a lawsuit against Speaker Mike Johnson to compel it.

Corporate Earnings & Expansion: Southern Co.'s profits surged 11.5% in Q3, largely driven by demand from data centers. Popular Atlanta restaurant R. Thomas Deluxe Grill was acquired by Teranga Group with plans for franchising.

Real Estate & Development: Metro Atlanta's office sector recorded one of its best quarters since the COVID-19 pandemic. Downtown Macon is receiving a $100,000 investment to enhance safety and cleanliness.

Philanthropy: Spelman College and Clark Atlanta University (CAU) received significant donations of $38 million each from philanthropist MacKenzie Scott.

Elections: Crucial elections for two Public Service Commission (PSC) seats were held on November 4, drawing unusual attention as a referendum on rising Georgia Power bills. Special elections are also pending for vacant legislative seats.

Federal Funding Lapse: Georgia politicians are blaming each other for the lapse in federal SNAP benefits, though courts have ordered the federal government to continue funding the program. Democrats urged Governor Kemp to use the state's budget surplus to address the issue.

Hemp Regulation: Attorney General Chris Carr joined calls for a federal law to remove intoxicating hemp products from store shelves, as state lawmakers consider new regulations.

Mega-Projects & Tech: Michigan secured its largest economic development in history with an OpenAI-Oracle data center campus ("Stargate") planned for Saline Township. Waymo is launching autonomous ride-hailing services in Detroit.

Manufacturing & Automotive: General Motors is laying off approximately 1,700 workers due to slowing demand for electric vehicles. The state is terminating incentives and seeking to claw back millions from a Chinese EV battery plant project due to local and national opposition.

Market Trends: Mortgage interest rates have dropped to their lowest level in over a year.

Legislative Gridlock: A legal dispute over "unsent bills" is heading to the Michigan Supreme Court, with an appeals court ruling that the judiciary can compel the House to transmit bills to the governor.

SNAP Benefits Relief: Michigan Senate Democrats secured $71 million in emergency, bipartisan relief to address the federal SNAP benefits pause affecting 1.4 million Michiganders. A judge also ruled that the Trump administration must continue benefit distribution.

Tourism & Gaming Downturn: Nevada's crucial tourism and gaming sectors experienced a downturn in September 2025, with Las Vegas visitor volume down 9% and gaming revenue down 2.2% statewide. Local and regional gaming markets, however, showed resilience.

Real Estate Market: Rents in the Las Vegas Valley have declined or remained flat for four consecutive months, partly due to an increase in new apartment supply.

Economic Development: The Governor's Office of Economic Development (GOED) is investing $1.8 million into WaterStart, a nonprofit scaling water technology companies.

Law Enforcement Innovation: The Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department is set to deploy the nation's largest police fleet of Tesla Cybertrucks in November.

Federal Shutdown Response: The Nevada Legislature approved $30 million for the Food Insecurity Nevada Plan, and Governor Joe Lombardo authorized additional state funding to support food banks as federal SNAP benefits were paused for 500,000 residents.

Nuclear Testing Debate: Nevada Democrats in Congress are demanding clarification and unequivocal opposition to former President Trump's suggestion to resume explosive nuclear weapons testing.

Major Investments: Governor Josh Stein led a delegation to Japan and Taiwan, securing significant investments including Genentech's new $700 million manufacturing plant (400 jobs) and JetZero's $4.7 billion production facility (14,500 jobs).

Innovation & Growth: The U.S. government took a stake in Durham-based Vulcan Elements through a $1.4 billion partnership for rare earth magnets. Cloud services firm RapidScale is expanding its Raleigh operations and plans to hire 100 more employees.

Job Losses: Mannington Mills is closing its carpet factory in Gaston County, resulting in 296 job losses.

SNAP Benefits Suspended: The USDA paused all November SNAP benefits starting November 1, impacting 1.4 million North Carolinians. Attorney General Jeff Jackson joined a lawsuit, and Governor Stein announced $10 million in state grants for food banks.

Redistricting Battle: North Carolina's new congressional map is facing legal challenges, with plaintiffs seeking an injunction to block its use in the 2026 elections, alleging partisan favoritism and racial targeting.

Legislative Impasse: The General Assembly continues to grapple with a Medicaid funding impasse, leading to anticipated provider rate cuts due to a projected $319 million shortfall.

Data Center Boom: Pennsylvania is rapidly becoming a key location for data center development, highlighted by Amazon's $20 billion investment in rural Pennsylvania for AI data centers—the state's largest corporate investment of this kind.

Manufacturing Investment: Governor Shapiro announced a $352.9 million investment from Eos Energy to expand battery manufacturing and relocate its headquarters, projecting 735 new jobs.

Budget Impact: The state's budget impasse continues, causing local governments like York County to announce they will withhold payments to the state. Graduate workers at the University of Pennsylvania announced a strike authorization vote.

Supreme Court Battle: A highly contentious Supreme Court retention election for three Democratic justices took place, drawing significant national attention and spending due to its potential to shift the court's ideological balance.

Federal Shutdown and SNAP: The federal government shutdown has created a SNAP crisis for nearly 2 million Pennsylvanians. Governor Josh Shapiro took legal action, declared a disaster emergency, and released $5 million in state funding to food banks.

State Budget Impasse: The four-month state budget impasse persists, leading to severe consequences, including frozen hiring and program cuts for local governments and schools.

Major Acquisition: Nicolet Bankshares Inc. is acquiring Iowa City-based MidWestOne Financial Group in an all-stock deal valued at approximately $864 million, doubling Nicolet Bank's footprint.

Closures & Innovation: After 75 years, Husar's House of Fine Diamonds is closing its doors. GOP lawmakers are proposing a new tax break for nuclear fusion projects, with Realta Fusion believing it could build its first plant within a decade.

Investment & Challenges: QTS plans a multi-billion dollar data center in Dane County. Tariffs are causing some Wisconsin companies, like Hsu's Ginseng and Bee Bella, to consider relocating or halting growth.

Gubernatorial Actions: Governor Tony Evers vetoed a Republican-backed bill mandating 80% in-person work for state employees, citing costs and recruitment issues. He also signed a bipartisan bill allowing candidates to withdraw their names from ballots.

Voting Rights & Elections: A Waukesha County judge temporarily halted a ruling that would require election officials to verify the citizenship of all 3.6 million registered voters. Inflation remains a top concern for voters ahead of the 2026 gubernatorial and Supreme Court races.

Federal Shutdown Impact: The ongoing federal government shutdown jeopardizes FoodShare benefits for nearly 700,000 Wisconsinites, prompting Governor Evers to declare a state of emergency and join a lawsuit.